Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-15 2.219379 2.344809 2.480469 2.639443 2.822453 3.028900 3.282980
2025-06-22 2.028876 2.179853 2.349595 2.557707 2.810716 3.115271 3.521734
2025-06-29 1.934882 2.105656 2.303528 2.555189 2.875698 3.284888 3.876223
2025-07-06 1.835414 2.013899 2.224803 2.499729 2.861418 3.343565 4.085355
2025-07-13 1.796734 1.990024 2.223654 2.537235 2.966556 3.571598 4.586738
2025-07-20 1.778869 1.988815 2.248479 2.607810 3.121579 3.893547 5.338839
2025-07-27 1.736308 1.953365 2.225999 2.611305 3.179536 4.075533 5.912447
2025-08-03 1.698910 1.921914 2.205926 2.615116 3.236426 4.263798 6.586345
2025-08-10 1.638053 1.857342 2.138242 2.546267 3.173663 4.233333 6.743467
2025-08-17 1.600868 1.821844 2.107540 2.528039 3.188125 4.343580 7.319675
2025-08-24 1.567992 1.790517 2.080714 2.513198 3.205772 4.462060 8.004898
2025-08-31 1.540558 1.765193 2.060703 2.506734 3.235934 4.610261 8.923538
2025-09-07 1.522376 1.752544 2.058997 2.529859 3.322885 4.905923 10.881658
2025-09-14 1.473230 1.696696 1.994554 2.452971 3.227207 4.781395 10.765797
2025-09-21 1.450443 1.675657 1.978273 2.449690 3.262580 4.964789 12.686958
2025-09-28 1.414199 1.635287 1.933067 2.398631 3.206481 4.920446 13.149801
2025-10-05 1.406016 1.632767 1.941585 2.432696 3.310844 5.299117 18.738215
2025-10-12 1.406890 1.642513 1.967941 2.496904 3.481176 5.926559 46.599844
2025-10-19 1.390502 1.627722 1.957678 2.500044 3.530679 6.229006 738.405407
2025-10-26 1.375074 1.613771 1.948039 2.503493 3.581132 6.560366 NaN
2025-11-02 1.342726 1.575312 1.900748 2.440794 3.485814 6.354750 NaN
2025-11-09 1.323897 1.555506 1.880848 2.424162 3.488457 6.509076 NaN
2025-11-16 1.306712 1.537613 1.863257 2.410614 3.496537 6.690352 NaN